Artificial intelligence has become ubiquitous in many workplaces and industries, yet it has not clearly shown up in official macroeconomic statistics on productivity, employment, or inflation, according to Fortune’s reporting and commentary from top economists. Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok recently noted that while AI tools like large language models are widely deployed, their economic impact hasn’t yet translated into measurable improvements in broad data. Analysts point to a situation similar to the early computer revolution, where the technology was visible everywhere long before it showed up in productivity figures.
Despite the lack of visible macro data effects, investor sentiment has already shifted, with markets pricing in AI’s potential to upend traditional business models. Companies in sectors like wealth management, professional services, and logistics have seen share prices fall amid fears that AI could disrupt their business models, even though the hard economic data doesn’t yet reflect large-scale disruption. Meanwhile, advocates like Anthropic’s CEO argue that AI could boost growth rates substantially if fully realised.
Economists like Slok emphasise that AI is more likely enhancing labour in many sectors rather than wholesale replacing jobs — at least for now. Official projections, such as those from the Congressional Budget Office, suggest modest productivity gains from AI over the next decade, and labour data revisions for 2025 showed far fewer job gains than initially reported. That mixed picture suggests AI’s economic effects may be emerging unevenly across the economy, with some industries advancing faster than others.
Broader research into AI’s effects also highlights skills-based shifts in the labour market, where demand for AI-related capabilities and higher wages is growing. Reports from firms like PwC indicate that jobs exposed to AI are expanding and often offer wage premiums, underscoring that AI’s interaction with work is complex — blending augmentation, re-skilling and new roles rather than simple displacement.
