A Fortune analysis by economist Torsten Slok suggests that while artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming business practices and investor expectations, its effects are still not apparent in headline macroeconomic data like overall productivity, employment, and inflation. Slok revisits a classic insight from the 1980s — that you “see the computer age everywhere except in the productivity statistics” — and argues a similar pattern is emerging with AI: gains are evident in select companies and sectors, but broad economic indicators haven’t yet captured a clear impact.
From a labour market perspective, this raises a nuanced picture of AI’s influence on work. Slok observes that although models like ChatGPT have become widely used, traditional data on job growth and productivity doesn’t yet reflect strong AI-driven transformation. He notes that outside a handful of leading tech firms, profit margins and earnings forecasts don’t show obvious productivity improvements linked directly to AI, and total factor productivity — the efficiency with which labour and capital create output — is projected to grow only modestly due to AI in the coming decade.
Despite this, economists are divided on whether AI will enhance labour across sectors or replace jobs entirely. Some macroeconomic models, such as those from the Congressional Budget Office, project only small increases in productivity tied to AI — which suggests AI is more likely to augment work in some industries than fully displace workers in all sectors over the long term. At the same time, shifts in specific job categories — like marketing, office support, and certain technical roles — already show early signs of disruption in labour demand.
The broader debate reflects a transition phase: AI’s short-term economic effects remain subtle, but longer-term consequences will depend on how quickly firms integrate AI, how workers adapt skills, and whether policy frameworks evolve to support workforce transitions. Forecasts vary widely — from modest productivity bumps to significant reshaping of labour markets as automation and AI adoption spread — but the emerging consensus among many economists is that AI will be a labour-enhancing force for some jobs while expanding roles in others, rather than producing mass unemployment overnight.
