Economists believe that artificial intelligence may finally be driving measurable gains in productivity after years of debate, according to a Fortune report. After a period of heavy investment and slow observable economic impact, recent data revisions for 2025 suggest a significant increase in productivity — nearly 2.7 % growth, which is almost double the decade’s average. This pattern aligns with the classic “J-curve” seen in previous general-purpose technology revolutions, where benefits lag behind initial costs before eventually rising sharply.
The shift is inferred from a revised U.S. jobs report showing far fewer net hires in 2025 than previously thought — just 181,000 jobs added — yet the economy continued to expand at a solid pace. This decoupling of output growth from labor input suggests that companies may be producing more with fewer workers, a hallmark of rising productivity potentially driven by increased AI adoption.
Prominent voices in the debate, like Stanford economist Erik Brynjolfsson, argue that the data points to a transition from an investment phase — where firms experimented with AI — into a “harvest phase,” where AI’s effects begin to show up in core economic statistics. He notes that some organisations are already using AI to automate entire workstreams, significantly accelerating tasks that once took weeks.
Despite these signs, sceptics caution that one year of strong productivity growth isn’t definitive proof of a long-term trend. Broader macroeconomic indicators still show mixed signals, and substantial work remains to understand how pervasive and durable AI’s productivity impact will be across the wider economy. As researchers and businesses analyse more data, the discussion continues on how AI can reshape economic performance and job dynamics.
