Global merchandise trade performed better than expected in the first quarter of 2026, largely because of a surge in demand for AI-related technologies and electronic components. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), global merchandise trade volumes increased 1.9% from the previous quarter and 3.2% year over year during the first three months of the year. The strong performance was notable because geopolitical tensions and disruptions to shipping routes were already beginning to affect global commerce.
The biggest driver was the rapid expansion of trade connected to AI infrastructure. The WTO reported that the dollar value of AI-related trade increased by more than 40% year over year in the first quarter. Investment in AI data centers, computing infrastructure, chips, and other electronic components helped generate enough additional trade activity to counter some of the negative effects of the Middle East conflict, including shipping disruptions, higher energy prices, and weaker growth in fuel-importing economies.
However, the positive effect of the AI boom may not be enough to offset the conflict indefinitely. The WTO warned that the full economic impact of the disruption is likely to become more visible in second-quarter data. The Middle East was already experiencing a sharp decline in trade: regional export volumes fell 9.7% year over year, while imports dropped 11.9% in the first quarter. Global crude-oil imports from the Middle East were down roughly 45% year over year in March, while LNG imports fell 52%.
The article therefore presents a competition between two major forces shaping the global economy: the AI investment boom and geopolitical disruption. Asia has benefited particularly strongly from demand for AI-enabling products and components, while conflict-related energy and shipping problems are putting pressure on other regions. Whether global trade can remain resilient will depend on how long AI-related investment continues at its current pace and how severely the Middle East conflict affects energy prices, shipping routes, and economic growth.
