European forests currently cover about 35 % of the land area and store roughly 9.8 Tg C, sequestering an average of 155 Tg C each year between 2010 and 2020. Climate‑driven disturbances, however, threaten this carbon pool, prompting scientists to explore assisted migration as a way to maintain the sink .
The study modeled seven major European tree species, showing that climate change will drastically shift their suitable habitats. Conifers such as Picea abies and Abies alba are projected to lose large portions of their current ranges, while deciduous species become more viable in many regions. If local seed provenances are used, the forest’s carbon uptake could drop by about 40 Tg C yr⁻¹ .
Researchers found that relocating seed sources to climatically matched sites can offset much of that loss. By selecting provenances adapted to future conditions, the carbon sink can be stabilized or even enhanced, especially when deciduous trees replace conifers in areas where the latter become unsuitable. The analysis suggests that assisted migration, combined with strategic species selection, could preserve the forest’s role as a long‑term carbon sink .
While the approach shows promise, implementation requires careful planning to avoid unintended ecological impacts. Monitoring and adaptive management will be essential to ensure that assisted migration supports both carbon sequestration and overall forest resilience under ongoing climate change .
