A British AI startup called ManticAI has outperformed humans in an international forecasting competition, the Metaculus Cup. The AI system ranked eighth in the competition, predicting the likelihood of 60 events over the summer, including political developments and environmental incidents.
ManticAI's system uses multiple machine-learning models to break down forecasting tasks into specialized units. This approach allows the AI to excel in areas with abundant data. However, the system still lags behind humans in complex, judgment-heavy areas.
The competition results have sparked discussions about the evolving landscape of forecasting. Experts believe that AI will excel in certain categories, while humans retain the edge in areas requiring more judgment. The best results will likely come from human-AI collaboration.
The achievement showcases the potential of large language models in forecasting, demonstrating genuine reasoning capabilities rather than just regurgitating training data.
