Economists are forecasting that artificial intelligence will significantly boost labor productivity in the United States, helping the country maintain or even increase its economic lead relative to other major economies. In a recent survey of economists, a majority expect AI and related technologies to drive efficiency gains across industries, contributing to stronger output per worker and supporting overall economic performance. This optimism reflects confidence in AI’s ability to transform how work is done, even amid broader debates about labor markets and technological disruption.
A key reason behind this projected productivity boost is AI’s capacity to automate routine tasks and enhance decision-making. Across sectors such as professional services, manufacturing, and administrative work, AI tools are enabling faster analysis, reducing time spent on repetitive processes, and allowing human workers to focus on higher-value activities. These incremental gains, when aggregated across the economy, can translate into material improvements in productivity growth rates.
However, experts emphasize that there is also uncertainty and nuance in how these productivity benefits will play out. While many economists see increasing efficiency and output, others caution that measurable impacts depend on adoption rates, worker skills, and how AI integrates into business processes. Some forecasts suggest productivity effects will continue to grow over the coming years as organizations refine their use of AI and embed it more deeply into core operations.
The debate around AI’s productivity impact also intersects with broader economic concerns, including employment dynamics and wage growth. While AI may boost output and economic competitiveness, there are ongoing questions about how the gains will be shared among workers and whether productivity growth will translate into broader wage increases or shifts in labor demand. Nonetheless, the prevailing view among economists in the survey is that AI represents a significant positive force for productivity in the U.S. economy going into 2026.
