John Sviokla argues that we are entering a new kind of geopolitical conflict — an AI Cold War — driven by countries’ urgent efforts to achieve “sovereign AI”: the ability to build, control, and deploy AI systems independently of foreign powers. He warns that this isn’t just a technology race but a battle for strategic autonomy, as nations seek to safeguard their data, compute infrastructure, and AI innovation from external influence.
At the heart of this conflict is the realization that AI has become infrastructure as vital as energy or telecommunications. Sviokla suggests that countries now see owning their AI stack — from data to models to compute — as essential to preserving national security, economic resilience, and regulatory sovereignty. If they rely too much on foreign cloud providers or AI platforms, they risk losing control over how AI affects their citizens and critical systems.
This race is increasingly visible in concrete initiatives: governments are funding domestic AI research, building national data centers, and pressing for regulation that supports homegrown AI ecosystems. But Sviokla also cautions that “sovereign AI” isn’t a simple isolationist play — it’s about striking a balance between autonomy and global cooperation while managing risks.
Importantly, he warns of a darker side: the same push for sovereignty may incentivize mutually assured deregulation, where nations loosen AI safety regulations in the name of speed and control. Without strong guardrails, the race for dominance could lead to a fragmented, unstable AI landscape with serious global risks.
