In the AI era, compute power has become the scarce resource that surpasses the importance of oil or gold. The United States currently leads in advanced AI hardware, with NVIDIA's A100 and H100 chips powering many powerful models. However, controlling access to compute power is equally crucial, as rivals can bypass direct chip sales by renting compute power from US data centers.
The cloud loophole allows countries like China and Russia to access high-performance computing by renting from US data centers, even if direct chip sales are blocked. This highlights the true bottleneck in AI development, which lies not just in manufacturing hardware but in regulating access to it.
To address this issue, potential solutions include regulating cloud-based compute rentals and applying export rules to prevent unauthorized access. Increasing transparency by requiring cloud providers to disclose who is accessing high-end resources could also help. Investing in domestic chip production and recognizing compute power as critical infrastructure are also essential steps.
Securing compute power is vital for nations to dominate AI, as it drives breakthroughs, accelerates progress, and enables new models to emerge. Without access to high-performance computing, even top researchers face significant limitations. Countries like China are making compute power a national strategy, directing resources and allocating chips to priority projects.
In contrast, the US has largely left this to the market, creating potential vulnerabilities. Implementing measures like a global registry for tracking AI chips, compute caps, and prioritizing compute resources for beneficial research could help mitigate these risks. Ultimately, controlling compute power will decide who wins in the AI era.
