A Guardian analysis from February 5, 2026 reports that a widely publicised $100 billion investment deal between Nvidia and OpenAI has effectively disappeared from the AI investment landscape — and the shift is stirring concern about the stability and economics of the artificial intelligence sector. Originally announced in September 2025, the deal was narrowly structured as a letter of intent under which Nvidia would invest up to $100 billion into OpenAI’s infrastructure build‑out, largely tied to purchases of Nvidia’s own AI chips. However, neither company has finalised a binding agreement, and Nvidia’s CEO has since downplayed the scale of the pledge.
That announcement had fuelled optimism — and hype — across AI markets, because it symbolised deep financial backing for both AI development and Nvidia’s chip ecosystem. But with the $100 billion figure now revealed to be non‑binding and not sealed in contract, critics argue that exuberant expectations about AI funding may have outpaced economic realities. The arrangement was criticised as a “circular” deal — in which investment would essentially flow back as purchases of Nvidia hardware — raising questions about whether it was sustainable or substantive in the first place.
The fallout from the reversal has been noticeable in financial markets, with Nvidia’s stock sliding in response to the emerging uncertainty. OpenAI is reportedly exploring other options for compute and investment and has engaged with alternative chip providers and partners, reflecting a broader move toward diversified supply chains and funding sources rather than reliance on a single megadeal. Meanwhile, major compute commitments remain in play — OpenAI has publicly acknowledged compute contracts exceeding $1 trillion — but the evaporation of the headline $100 billion figure has underlined the gap between public expectation and contractual reality.
Observers see this development as part of a broader recalibration of the AI economy. Exuberant announcements and headline‑grabbing figures helped drive momentum in 2025, but the recent retreat highlights how companies, investors and markets are now assessing what parts of the AI growth story are financially viable and what might be driven more by hype. As competition intensifies — with rivals such as Google, Anthropic and xAI gaining traction in various AI markets — the incident suggests that the industry is transitioning from big, speculative commitments toward more measured, profit‑oriented strategies.
