The idea of a coming “Great Progression”—a period from roughly 2025 to 2050 where artificial intelligence could drive a massive surge in economic productivity. Productivity, the amount of output each worker can produce, is highlighted as the single most important driver of long-term prosperity, with even small increases compounding into large gains over decades.
Historically, periods of strong productivity growth—such as the post–World War II boom—led to widespread prosperity, higher wages, and improved living standards. In contrast, recent decades have seen slower growth, resulting in stagnation and dissatisfaction. The article explains that new “general-purpose technologies” like AI have the potential to reverse this trend, but only after businesses adapt and workers learn to use them effectively.
Looking ahead, the article presents scenarios where AI significantly boosts productivity. If annual productivity growth rises modestly above past averages, it could still generate major economic gains. But in more optimistic scenarios—such as 4% yearly growth—the impact becomes dramatic: workers could produce far more value, wages could rise substantially, and overall economic output could expand at an unprecedented pace.
However, the article also warns that the benefits of this “Great Progression” will not be automatic or evenly distributed. Without changes to how wealth is shared, the gains from AI could disproportionately benefit the already wealthy, increasing inequality and social tension. The key challenge, therefore, is not just accelerating productivity—but ensuring that the new wealth created by AI is distributed in a way that benefits society as a whole.
