The notion that artificial intelligence (AI) is a revolutionary force that will drastically change society in a short period has been a topic of discussion among experts. However, some argue that AI is a general-purpose technology similar to electricity, which will have a transformative impact over decades, not years. This perspective is based on the "innovation-diffusion feedback loop," which suggests that the adoption and impact of AI will be slow due to the learning curve, need for human oversight, and tacit knowledge required in various industries.
If AI is viewed as a normal technology, the focus shifts from catastrophic risks to more practical concerns, such as developing strategies to deal with potential risks and benefits, ensuring responsible use and regulation of AI, and understanding how AI may change the nature of work. Arvind Narayanan, Director of the Center for Information Technology Policy at Princeton University, emphasizes that the "normal technology" view doesn't understate AI's impact but rather highlights its similarities to past technologies.
This perspective encourages a more nuanced discussion about AI's potential and limitations. By recognizing that AI is a normal technology that will have a gradual impact, people and institutions can adapt and prepare for the changes it will bring. Ultimately, understanding AI's true nature will help us better navigate its development and deployment, ensuring that its benefits are realized while minimizing its risks.
