The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the global economy is being shaped by two powerful but opposing forces: geopolitical instability driven by the Iran conflict and rapid investment in artificial intelligence. While the IMF lowered its 2026 global growth forecast slightly to 3%, it found that strong AI-related spending is helping offset the economic impact of higher energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and trade uncertainty.
According to the IMF, countries that manufacture AI-related hardware—including semiconductors, servers, and other computing infrastructure—are benefiting the most from the AI boom. Economies such as South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Thailand have exceeded growth expectations thanks to robust technology exports, while AI investment has helped the United States remain resilient despite geopolitical headwinds. IMF officials noted that the strength of the AI investment cycle was stronger than anticipated in previous forecasts.
In contrast, countries that rely heavily on imported energy and have limited exposure to AI industries are facing greater economic pressure. The IMF warned that renewed conflict in the Middle East or further disruptions to global energy supplies could drive inflation higher and slow growth. At the same time, the concentration of AI investment in a relatively small number of countries means that the benefits of the technology are not being shared evenly across the global economy.
The IMF concluded that while AI is becoming a major source of economic resilience and growth, it also introduces new risks. Heavy investment in AI infrastructure is boosting demand today, but the long-term productivity gains have yet to fully materialize. Policymakers are therefore being urged to balance support for AI-driven innovation with measures to manage inflation, strengthen energy security, and prepare for the possibility that the current AI investment boom may not meet lofty expectations.
