Artificial intelligence is beginning to reshape global trade, and some economists warn it could weaken the United States’ long-standing trade surplus in services. The U.S. sells far more services—such as software, financial expertise, and intellectual property—to other countries than it buys. In 2024 the U.S. recorded a services trade surplus of about $293 billion, making it one of the strongest parts of the American economy. However, rapid advances in AI may disrupt the industries that produce these services.
A major risk comes from the way large language models and AI platforms can replicate services that companies previously sold internationally. For example, AI tools can now perform tasks such as legal research, financial analysis, and business automation. When these services are automated or embedded into AI systems, companies may no longer need to purchase them from U.S. providers. The article notes that announcements of powerful AI tools have already shaken markets and wiped out large amounts of value from firms built around subscription software services.
The sectors most important to the U.S. services surplus include travel, financial services, and intellectual property. AI could affect financial services and intellectual-property industries in particular. As AI becomes capable of performing professional tasks—like data analysis, consulting, or patent-related work—countries may choose to develop these capabilities domestically instead of outsourcing them to American companies.
The article concludes that the biggest threat may not be direct job losses but a reduction in the value of services that countries buy from abroad. If AI enables nations to create their own digital services locally, the demand for imported services could fall, gradually shrinking the U.S. trade surplus. As AI technology spreads globally, it may reshape international trade and challenge America’s long-standing dominance in the digital service economy.
